Deep Dive: These 15 stocks rose 100% or more during the pandemic, but they’ve since been crushed. Is it now time to buy?

During the earlier stages of the pandemic, investors seeing stocks such as Zoom Video Communications Inc. ZM, +0.76% and DocuSign Inc. DOCU, +2.75% rocketing during lockdowns realized they couldn’t go up forever. But they also didn’t know how long the initial lockdown period would last, and they might have been afraid of missing out. Investors or traders might have scored tidy profits if they jumped on the bandwagon and got off in time.

Getting back to Peloton, the share price price more than doubled during the first half of 2020. So that sets the stage for a screen of stocks that have gone through pandemic boom-and-bust cycles.

Pandemic winners transform into losers

The screen begins with the Russell 1000 Index RUI, +0.62%, which includes the largest American companies that are publicly traded, weighted by market capitalization.

Among the Russell 1000, 20 stocks doubled in price, at least, from the end of 2019 through June 20, 2020. Among those, 15 were down at least 50% from their pandemic intraday highs through the close on Feb. 7, 2022.

Here they are, sorted by how much they have declined from those highs:

Company
Ticker
Decline from pandemic high
Price increase – Dec. 31, 2019, through pandemic high
Date of intraday high since Dec. 31, 2019
Price increase – Dec. 31, 2019, through June 30, 2020
Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A
PTON, +27.43%
-83%
502%
01/14/2021
103%
Fastly Inc. Class A
FSLY, +2.04%
-80%
580%
10/13/2020
324%
Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A
ZM, +0.76%
-76%
765%
10/19/2020
273%
Teladoc Health Inc.
TDOC, -3.72%
-76%
268%
02/16/2021
128%
Plug Power Inc.
PLUG, +1.33%
-72%
2289%
01/26/2021
160%
Novavax Inc.
NVAX, -12.85%
-71%
8234%
02/09/2021
1994%
DraftKings Inc. Class A
DKNG, +1.79%
-71%
595%
03/22/2021
211%
Quidel Corp.
QDEL, -1.40%
-69%
309%
08/06/2020
198%
Moderna Inc.
MRNA, -4.49%
-68%
2443%
08/10/2021
228%
Wix.com Ltd.
WIX, +0.62%
-67%
196%
02/19/2021
109%
DocuSign Inc.
DOCU, +2.75%
-62%
325%
08/10/2021
132%
Wayfair Inc. Class A
W, +4.13%
-62%
308%
01/14/2021
119%
Twilio Inc. Class A
TWLO, +0.14%
-57%
365%
02/18/2021
123%
Etsy Inc.
ETSY, +2.94%
-56%
595%
11/26/2021
140%
Cloudflare Inc. Class A
NET, +2.17%
-52%
1199%
11/18/2021
111%
Source: FactSet

Click on the tickers for more about each company.

You should also read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

As to whether you should consider buying any of these stocks in hopes of a rebound, it might be best to look beyond trading momentum and buzz, and turn toward fundamentals. You might consider likely the companies are to continue or resume a steady growth path leading to consistent profits.

Leaving the group in the same order, here are projected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales through calendar 2023. We’re using calendar-year estimates because some of the companies have fiscal years that don’t match the calendar. Since we’re still in earnings season, the figures for 2021 are also consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet:

Company
Ticker
Two-year estimated sales CAGR
Estimated sales – 2021 ($mil)
Estimated sales – 2022 ($mil)
Estimated sales – 2023 ($mil)
Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A
PTON, +27.43%
15.6%
$4,062
$4,534
$5,426
Fastly Inc. Class A
FSLY, +2.04%
19.6%
$349
$417
$499
Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A
ZM, +0.76%
17.8%
$3,960
$4,677
$5,492
Teladoc Health Inc.
TDOC, -3.72%
25.4%
$2,025
$2,575
$3,181
Plug Power Inc.
PLUG, +1.33%
66.3%
$497
$906
$1,375
Novavax Inc.
NVAX, -12.85%
33.7%
$1,365
$4,942
$2,441
DraftKings Inc. Class A
DKNG, +1.79%
41.5%
$1,269
$1,901
$2,542
Quidel Corp.
QDEL, -1.40%
-31.8%
$1,574
$985
$733
Moderna Inc.
MRNA, -4.49%
-16.1%
$18,020
$21,499
$12,694
Wix.com Ltd.
WIX, +0.62%
20.9%
$1,273
$1,529
$1,859
DocuSign Inc.
DOCU, +2.75%
25.0%
$2,034
$2,564
$3,175
Wayfair Inc. Class A
W, +4.13%
14.0%
$13,766
$15,166
$17,885
Twilio Inc. Class A
TWLO, +0.14%
30.8%
$2,767
$3,660
$4,731
Etsy Inc.
ETSY, +2.94%
20.4%
$2,297
$2,764
$3,331
Cloudflare Inc. Class A
NET, +2.17%
35.2%
$648
$891
$1,183
Source: FactSet

Aside from Quidel Corp. QDEL, -1.40% and Moderna Inc. MRNA, -4.49%, the companies are expected to achieve double-digit growth rates for sales over the next two years.

Most of the companies weren’t profitable during 2021. Here are consensus estimates for earnings per share through calendar 2023:

Company
Ticker
Estimated EPS – 2021
Estimated EPS – 2022
Estimated EPS – 2023
Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A
PTON, +27.43%
-$1.77
-$1.97
-$0.76
Fastly Inc. Class A
FSLY, +2.04%
-$0.55
-$0.49
-$0.29
Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A
ZM, +0.76%
$4.72
$4.41
$4.76
Teladoc Health Inc.
TDOC, -3.72%
-$3.24
-$1.82
-$1.26
Plug Power Inc.
PLUG, +1.33%
-$0.57
-$0.26
-$0.06
Novavax Inc.
NVAX, -12.85%
-$12.56
$29.31
$13.68
DraftKings Inc. Class A
DKNG, +1.79%
-$3.61
-$2.45
-$1.62
Quidel Corp.
QDEL, -1.40%
$16.12
$8.73
$3.89
Moderna Inc.
MRNA, -4.49%
$27.27
$28.13
$13.04
Wix.com Ltd.
WIX, +0.62%
-$1.39
-$1.43
-$0.39
DocuSign Inc.
DOCU, +2.75%
$1.89
$2.14
$2.72
Wayfair Inc. Class A
W, +4.13%
$2.58
$1.60
$4.28
Twilio Inc. Class A
TWLO, +0.14%
-$0.25
-$0.03
$0.32
Etsy Inc.
ETSY, +2.94%
$3.03
$3.48
$4.64
Cloudflare Inc. Class A
NET, +2.17%
-$0.05
$0.02
$0.10
Source: FactSet

Companies on the list expected to swing to calendar-year profitability this year or in 2023 include Novavax Inc. NVAX, -12.85%, Twilio Inc. TWLO, +0.14% and Cloudflare Inc. NET, +2.17%.

Here’s a summary of ratings and consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet:

Company
Ticker
Share “buy” ratings
Share  neutral ratings
Share “sell” ratings
Closing price – Feb. 7
Cons. price target
Implied 12-month upside potential
Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A
PTON, +27.43%
52%
42%
6%
$29.75
$46.54
56%
Fastly Inc. Class A
FSLY, +2.04%
8%
77%
15%
$26.91
$37.22
38%
Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A
ZM, +0.76%
50%
47%
3%
$141.44
$265.83
88%
Teladoc Health Inc.
TDOC, -3.72%
57%
40%
3%
$74.53
$129.48
74%
Plug Power Inc.
PLUG, +1.33%
76%
24%
0%
$21.46
$43.33
102%
Novavax Inc.
NVAX, -12.85%
71%
29%
0%
$94.80
$250.00
164%
DraftKings Inc. Class A
DKNG, +1.79%
59%
38%
3%
$21.50
$50.41
134%
Quidel Corp.
QDEL, -1.40%
75%
25%
0%
$96.40
$171.33
78%
Moderna Inc.
MRNA, -4.49%
43%
52%
5%
$160.27
$272.73
70%
Wix.com Ltd.
WIX, +0.62%
71%
29%
0%
$119.38
$228.50
91%
DocuSign Inc.
DOCU, +2.75%
54%
41%
5%
$118.41
$195.44
65%
Wayfair Inc. Class A
W, +4.13%
34%
50%
16%
$141.24
$244.76
73%
Twilio Inc. Class A
TWLO, +0.14%
94%
6%
0%
$195.78
$358.46
83%
Etsy Inc.
ETSY, +2.94%
67%
28%
5%
$135.66
$239.83
77%
Cloudflare Inc. Class A
NET, +2.17%
48%
47%
5%
$107.10
$156.94
47%
Source: FactSet

More than half of the analysts rate Peloton a “buy” or the equivalent. Twilio is the analysts’ favorite, with 94% favorable ratings.

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